去年此时我赖在后海哀号不要过2008年的时候，决计想不到366天后的今天，我会这么舍不得和它道别。没有日记和bbs帮忙，现在都想不起来过去的12个月里我大概在做什么，都和谁在一起了。含义太丰富的一年，过得似乎比往年要慢一点。但愿这是因为我在很认真很认真的过每一天，但愿来年也是这样。

    这一年，听父母讲述过家乡的冰冻，感受过“中国加油”的天安门，坐着鸟巢看过人来客往的奥运会，去宁波给阿胡看过婆家的床，在乌镇的青石板上念过入画秋雨半目缘。这一年看过很多戏，最喜欢《暗恋桃花源》；看过很多电影，最喜欢《我和狗狗的十个约定》；听过很多唱片，最喜欢《Short Stay冲绳》；没读太多书，最喜欢《浮生六记》；隔三岔五去看些展览，不知道以后还有没有机会看到《中华记忆》。这一年和tt吃过很多土豆泥，和昕昕吃过很多港丽和必胜客，和小王萌一干人等吃过最后几回怡中园，在理工和北大的食堂塞下去了无数莫名其妙的食物。这一年想过很多问题，有些想明白了有些还在想有些知道以后不用想了，这一年我过的挺好。

    明年姐姐要生小小宝，核桃要嫁人，昕昕和猴子要开始工作，球和阿潇要奋斗司考，剩下的都要好好工作好好学习好好找个靠谱的不走弯路。小冲和泰达姐姐，如果可以的话，我重点祝福你们。

    大家2008圆满，2009愉快。明年见。

Insurance in emerging markets: overview and prospects for Islamic insurance

sigma No 5/2008

Swiss Re’s new sigma study explores the latest developments in the insurance sector of the emerging market economies, with a special focus on the growing market for takaful, a form of Islamic insurance.

The first half of the study covers the latest developments in the insurance industry in the emerging markets. The second half is devoted to a discussion of takaful, a form of financial protection based on mutual assistance and joint risk bearing that is widely accepted by Islamic scholars.

新兴保险市场：伊斯兰保险的概述与展望

Swiss Re最新一期的sigma对新兴市场经济体保险业的最新发展动态进行了研究，尤其是回教保险TAKAFUL，伊斯兰世界保险的一种。在前半部分，我们首先回顾下新兴市场中保险业的最新发展；而在后半部分我们要着重探讨Takaful（回教保险）。回教保险是基于相互援助与风险公担的一种财务保护，而且被伊斯兰学者广泛认可。

Non-life insurance in the emerging markets
In real terms, emerging market premiums in the non-life sector grew by 11.6% in 2007. Premium volume in 2007 amounted to USD 199bn. South and East Asia (+13%), Eastern Europe (+12%) and the Middle East (+12%) grew the fastest. According to Daniel Staib, one of the study’s co-authors, “The non-life sector benefited from the strong economic environment and the introduction of new compulsory lines in the Middle East.” Staib adds, “The motor and property businesses continued to dominate the emerging markets insurance landscape in 2007, with motor insurance outperforming the non-life market as a whole.”

新兴市场中的非寿险

扣除物价因素，2007年新兴市场中非寿险保费规模实际增长了11.6%，达到199 billion美元。其中，东南亚市场增幅最高，达到了13%，其次是东欧和中东市场，均为12%。本课题的联合作者之一Daniel Staib认为，非寿险得益于强劲的外部市场环境以及中东地区新推出的强制性产品。而且，车险和财产险业务依然占据着主导地位，尤其是车险，表现最为突出。

Life insurance in the emerging markets
Growth in the life market slowed from 18% to 14% in 2007. Premium volume in 2007 amounted to USD 223bn. Co-author Prudence Ho notes, “The strong performance of the stock markets in the first three quarters of 2007 led to increased sales of investment-linked life products. The launch of new products and the increasing market share of bancassurance, the provision of insurance services by banks, also contributed significantly to the sector’s results.”

新兴市场中的人身险

人身险保费规模增速则由18%降至14%，保费规模为233billion美元。联合作者中的Prudence Ho 指出，07年头三季度，由于股票市场表现抢眼，投连型险种销售大大增加。同时，新产品的不断推出及银保（由银行代理经销的保险）市场份额进一步增大，也对人身险规模发展产生了显著影响。

Most of the regions decelerated only marginally from their record high levels of the previous year. In South and East Asia, Indonesia (+57%) grew the fastest in 2007. In India, the second-largest market, growth of new business fell from 145.7% in 2006 to just 9.6% in 2007.

新兴市场中大部分国家或地区的保费增速仅仅比06年——保费增速最快的一年——有所下滑。在东南亚市场，印度尼西亚以57%的增速高居榜首；其次是第二大市场印度，新单增幅从06年的145.6%骤降至07年的区区9.6%。

Insurance trends and the outlook for the emerging markets
One of the recent developments in the insurance sector of emerging markets is the decision by some regulators to push for the introduction of more stringent capital requirements. Another development is the expansion of microinsurance, which extends coverage to low-income individuals. Finally, bancassurance has continued to grow in importance as a distribution channel.

新兴保险市场走势与展望

其它近期发展还包括：监管者决定引入更严格的资本要求，推广小额保险以期覆盖低收入人群，银行保险作为一个重要的销售渠道继续增长等等。

The financial crisis in industrialised countries has clouded the near-term economic outlook. Demand for products exported from emerging economies will shrink. Commodity prices have already fallen significantly and are expected to continue their slide, leading to lower inflation. Daniel Staib notes, “Insurance in the emerging markets is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2008 and 2009, but its longer term growth prospects remain positive.” He adds, “Factoring in these considerations, average annual growth is likely to drop from the 2002 to 2007 levels of 11.4% in life and 10.6% in non-life to 7-10% in life and 3-8% in non-life between 2008 and 2013.”

在发达国家爆发的金融危机使近期经济市场笼罩在乌云中。对新兴经济体出口产品的需求也将缩水。商品价格已经出现明显下降，并且预期进一步下降，最终出现低通货膨胀。Daniel Staib认为，08年和09年，新兴市场中保险业将会以较低速度发展，但长期来看，增长前景依然明确。他还认为，基于以上原因，08-13年间，新兴保险市场中人身险市场保费规模平均年增幅可能会从02-07年的11.4%降至10.6%，而非寿险则会从7-10%降至3-8%。

Islamic insurance – the growth of takaful as a solution
Various Islamic insurance models that comply with the shariah, the body of Islamic religious law, have been adopted in Muslim countries. Takaful, the focus of the sigma study, is the most accepted model.

伊斯兰保险——回教保险的发展

众多的伊斯兰保险模型都是遵从于伊斯兰法的，作为伊斯兰教的宗教法典，伊斯兰法被所有穆斯林国家采用。我们现在重点关注的Takaful，则是其中最被广泛接受的模型。

Takaful is a system based on the principle of mutual assistance (ta’awun) and voluntary contribution (tabarru), where risk is shared collectively and voluntarily by a group of participants. Through payment of a voluntary donation and the clear definition of the type of loss, impermissible elements such as uncertainty (gharar) and excessive risk taking (maisir) are removed from the contract.

Takaful是建立在互助（ta’awun：合作）和自愿捐献（（献金）原则之上的保障体系，而参与者作为一个整体，则主动将风险共担。由于保费的支付是一种自愿捐献，而且损失类型有明确定义，因此，在保险条款中我们看不到诸如不确定性（gharar）和溢额承保（maisir）之类的字眼。

Takaful involves:

• the creation of a shariah supervisory board that oversees insurance operations and compliance with the shariah;
• the separation of shareholder funds from policyholder funds;
• the commitment to distribute technical profits to policyholders;
• the avoidance of investment in non-shariah-compliant assets.

Takaful的要素有：

成立伊斯兰法监管委员会，用伊斯兰法监管海外保险运作；经营者基金应与投保人基金分离；承诺向投保人分配盈利；禁止投资不符合伊斯兰法的资产。

Islamic insurance – future prospects
Between 2004 and 2007, the average annual growth rate for takaful was estimated at 25% (adjusted for inflation) versus 10.2% of that in the conventional market. Although takaful premiums of approximately USD 1.7bn were written in 2007, the global takaful market could reach USD 7bn by 2015. The 1.5bn Muslims around the world represent a growing client segment for the insurance sector.

伊斯兰保险的前景

04至07年间，takaful平均年增幅约为25%（已扣除通胀因素），远远高于常规市场的10.2%。07年takaful的承保收入约为1.7billion美元，预计到2015年，将增至7billion。全世界1.5billion的穆斯林将成为保险世界中一个不断增长的消费群。

For this sigma, five markets were analysed in detail: Bahrain, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The two takaful markets with the largest growth potential are Saudi Arabia and Malaysia.

Sigma对巴林、印尼、大马、沙特及阿联酋这五个市场进行详细分析后认为，takaful增长潜力最大的是沙特和大马。

According to Prudence Ho, “Takaful is set to grow because populations of Muslim countries are rapidly growing and because shariah scholars agree that Muslims should refrain from buying conventional insurance if a takaful operator is selling the same product and offering similar benefits and services.” She adds, “Many companies – global, regional and local – have set up new takaful operations over the past five years and retakaful capacity is also expanding continuously.”

Prudence Ho认为，takeful的增长是由于穆斯林国家人口的急剧膨胀，而且穆斯林法律的学者们同意如果takaful能给予同意的利益和服务，穆斯林就不应该购买常规保险。她还说，在过去的五年里，很多公司，不论是跨国的、区域性的还是本地的，都开展了许多takaful运作，这也使得takaful的承保能力持续增强。

Regarding the challenges facing takaful, Daniel Staib explains, “For takaful to prosper, staff with insurance and shariah expertise, shariah scholars, and solutions for coping with large risks are needed.” He adds, “Further standardisation of the operating models and regulations are required. Improving the general public’s awareness of takaful products is also key. ”

谈到takaful可能面临的考验，Daniel Staib 表示：为了保障takaful的繁荣发展，需要有精通保险、穆斯林法以及懂得如何应对巨灾风险的专门人才，而且需要更标准化的运作模式和监管。当然，提高公众对takaful产品的了解也非常重要。

Both authors agree that if companies – with the support of regulators – rise to this challenge, the international takaful industry is well positioned to realise its full potential and attract customers from over the world, regardless of their religious affiliation.

两个作者都认为，如果监管机构能协助保险公司解决以上两个考验，全球性的takaful产业将释放出巨大的潜力来吸引全世界的消费者，不管他们是否信奉同一个神。